The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting that the Nigerian economy will grow by 0.8% this year.
The problem with IMF predictions is that they have lost a great deal of credibility around the world due to the fact that the predictions are constantly revised and restated.
Simply put, they can not be relied upon.
In this particular case the IMF notes that in the first half the has been under performance in growth in the Oil and Gas sector and slight improvement in manufacturing and agriculture.
So far so well known.
It goes on to say that with the enactment of Government growth policy, it forecasts a pickup in the economy in the second half of the year.
This is where the report losses all credibility.
Let’s not mention how dependent we are on the price of oil which is in a state of re-balancing.
Let’s not mention the sinking Government revenue and rising debt affecting the ability to stimulate growth.
Let’s just focus on the fact that the IMF bases it’s prediction on the execution of Federal Government policy.
This has not happened for many years. It will not happen this year. The Government has still agreed on how to enact the 2017 budget which it passed several months ago.
There is little hope of the execution of any growth policy in the second half of 2017.
The IMF is a joke.
This report proves its lack of credibility and understanding of our economy and drivers of performance.
We await the hilarious revision to the forecast that will inevitably come.