Forecasts for the volume of Oil and Gas exports or crude available for domestic refining will never be as high as presented by any member of the Federal Government of Nigeria .
There is one simple reason for this.
Collective amnesia over how much the supply is continuously disrupted by theft and vandalism.
Simple analysis of the current market indicates that volumes are well down on where they could/should be, even though Ag President Osinbajo has brokered some peace in the delta region.
It is like the American fairground game “Whackamole”, you bash down the issues in one area only for them to pop up again in another.
Foot patrols, drones and other aerial surveillance have not prevented theft and vandalism of gas and oil pipelines at huge levels.
Our erstwhile Oil diviner, Ibe Kachikwu always points to the future and now the new strategy for 2020.
These are all pipe dreams.
The issue may even get worse once Dangote is controlling the market (as he surely will by 2020) with the delta region getting even less share of the “national cake” as there will be less to go around once Dangote has eaten his oligarch’s share.
This may lead to more local agitation and disruption of supply.